The Fourth Turning

Probably one of the best books to make sense of what’s happening these days is “The Fourth Turning” by Strauss and Howe. I’ve mentioned it before.

The concept is that every 80-90 years, those that are in power have not only forgotten the painful lessons from their forefathers, they flat out ignore them thinking they know better. So turbulence and misery are nearly guaranteed as those in power learn these lessons. This happens in cycles that they’ve studied that go back to pre-revolutionary war.

Zerohedge had a great interview with Neil Howe about this.

Howe explained it better.

After WW2, the greatest generation would do what was needed to avoid depression and war, both of which they had lived though. Now, as the Millennials take power, there is no one around that knows those lessons. If they are, they are very old. What we have, at best, are late silent generation that were children at the end of WW2. Think the useless Nancy Pelosi or Bernie Sanders.

So that’s why you get the sense that the world is going crazy and these fools don’t know what they are doing. It’s because they don’t. We’ll all have to suffer as they learn the hard way.

A Turning is roughly 20 years. The current fourth turning kicked off in 2008. Last interview I saw with Neil Howe, his estimated peak crisis at 2025. So it’ll get worse.

The book is a little chewy, but a worthwhile read. And the interview is a must watch.