Don’t know what to think

Don’t know what to think about this Iran shitshow.

The one thing I’m certain of is we’re being lied to from both parties here. I’m not as rah-rah as many. Why?

• Netanyahu has been crowing that Iran is weeks away from an A-bomb for 25 years or so. Why is now any different?
• After the last attack, Israel was claiming that they destroyed 120 launchers and buried another 150 or so in their bunkers, out of 400 that they said Iran had. This week, the exact same story. They rebuilt 300 launchers or so in a less than a year? That’s some heroic shit there. Or, it’s bullshit.
• Trump says we have plenty of missiles. But…other sources that really don’t have skin in the game show that many of the attacks around the gulf were American assets, specifically missile launchers.
  • This was followed by stories of less and less notice Israel has been giving on incoming missles.
  • This week Koreans aren’t happy we’re moving our missile systems out to the middle east. Thought we had enough. Sort of lends credence to the news Iran wiped out a bunch.
• Conservative Inc has been hooting about the lesser numbers of missiles being fired by Iran. I read a more plausible piece that after the initial volley, they cut back to a rate that supports 1:1 replacement. They can keep this up a long time.

Iranians aren’t stupid. After we did the Lucy and the Football trick last time, attacking when we were negotiating, I think they prepared and expected this. Who wouldn’t, with all that hardware we sent over there? They’ve pretty much hammered tanker traffic in the Gulf. I think they have a plan. And I think that plan is rope-a-dope.

In 2003, Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari watched the United States decapitate Saddam Hussein’s centralized command structure in three weeks. He spent the next four years at the IRGC Strategic Studies Centre designing a military architecture that could never be decapitated.

In September 2007, he was appointed IRGC Commander and immediately restructured Iran’s entire military into 31 autonomous provincial commands, one per province, each with independent headquarters, command and control, missile and drone arsenals, fast-attack boat flotillas, integrated Basij militias, pre-delegated launch authority, stockpiled munitions, and sealed contingency orders. The doctrine was built for one scenario: the death of the Supreme Leader.

That scenario arrived on 28 February 2026. The doctrine activated within hours. It has been running ever since.

The question nobody has asked is whether anyone inside the Islamic Republic can turn it off.

No. The reason is constitutional.

Article 110 of Iran’s 1979 Constitution vests sole command authority over all armed forces exclusively in the Supreme Leader. He alone is commander-in-chief. He alone appoints and dismisses military leadership. No other institution, not the President, not the Parliament, not the Guardian Council, not the judiciary, possesses constitutional power to issue military orders or rescind the Supreme Leader’s directives. From Vox Popoli

This makes sense. If Trump had any sense, he’d back off the talk about killing the current Supreme Leader.

The Iranians have said they have no interest in negotiations. Why would they? Like the Russians learned, we are an ‘unreliable partner’. Why do the Lucy and the football trick again? Fool me once, and all that. Matter of fact, as Trump is crowing that we’re nearly done, the Iranians say it’ll be over when they decide, which means to me that they aim to misbehave. One of their dudes so much as said if they (us) are OK with $200 oil, they (us) can play these games all day.

They know the mid-terms are coming and we have a famously short attention span. All they have to do is survive and make everyone suffer.

Trump is gloating that we know where are the Iranian cells here are. I doubt it. It’s all fun and games until crap gets blown up here.

I don’t think it’s as simple as we’re making it.

Last I looked, Gas was $3.50/Gal here. Lovely.

Enjoy the suck. It’ll for sure get worse.